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Population · Oceania

Tokelau population 2026

Right now · estimate

Tokelau population right now

2,716

Births today
0
Deaths today
0
Births this year
46
Births minus deaths this year
+34

Tokelau has an estimated 2,691 people on 1 July 2026, the UN's projection, 83 more than a year earlier (+3.18%). It is the 235th most populous country in the world. It is projected to keep growing until 2081, peaking at 4 thousand, then decline to 4 thousand by 2100.

UN projection The counter interpolates the UN’s 1 July figures to the second; it is an estimate, not a count.

Tokelau in numbers, 2026

Births in 2026
55 0 a day
Deaths in 2026
15 0 a day
Net migration
+43 more arrivals than departures
Growth rate
+2.60% growing
Fertility rate
2.54per woman above replacement (2.1)
Median age
27.6years world: 31.1
Life expectancy
77.4years
Aged 65 and over
8.7% 12.3% by 2050

Land, people and health

Area
10 km² 234th largest of 237
Population density
224per km² 71st most crowded
Urban population
0.0% 0.0% by 2050
Men and women
1 thousand / 1 thousand 96.1 men per 100 women
Life expectancy, women
79.3years men: 75.3 years
Infant mortality
3.8per 1,000 births under-5: 5.0
Birth rate
20.5per 1,000 death rate: 5.6
Net migration rate
+16.1per 1,000 net arrivals

Population of Tokelau, 1950–2100

Projected peak: 2081, 4 thousand. By 2050: 4 thousand (+42.0% from today).

Population of Tokelau
  • UN estimate
  • UN projection
4.4k 2026
› Show the numbers as a table
YearPopulation
19501,592
19511,562
19521,563
19531,576
19541,586
19551,593
19561,604
19571,637
19581,682
19591,730
19601,784
19611,838
19621,869
19631,882
19641,893
19651,899
19661,898
19671,873
19681,827
19691,776
19701,720
19711,666
19721,641
19731,643
19741,642
19751,639
19761,643
19771,653
19781,663
19791,666
19801,664
19811,664
19821,666
19831,689
19841,727
19851,761
19861,782
19871,778
19881,766
19891,763
19901,766
19911,774
19921,778
19931,775
19941,772
19951,771
19961,771
19971,782
19981,801
19991,821
20001,844
20011,864
20021,839
20031,774
20041,705
20051,631
20061,569
20071,552
20081,562
20091,574
20101,584
20111,598
20121,659
20131,726
20141,728
20151,698
20161,677
20171,742
20181,878
20192,014
20202,128
20212,205
20222,290
20232,398
2024 *2,506
2025 *2,608
2026 *2,691
2027 *2,765
2028 *2,844
2029 *2,918
2030 *2,985
2031 *3,053
2032 *3,122
2033 *3,178
2034 *3,228
2035 *3,280
2036 *3,333
2037 *3,387
2038 *3,433
2039 *3,474
2040 *3,512
2041 *3,547
2042 *3,584
2043 *3,620
2044 *3,655
2045 *3,689
2046 *3,721
2047 *3,745
2048 *3,769
2049 *3,797
2050 *3,821
2051 *3,841
2052 *3,868
2053 *3,898
2054 *3,923
2055 *3,948
2056 *3,974
2057 *3,994
2058 *4,020
2059 *4,052
2060 *4,077
2061 *4,096
2062 *4,117
2063 *4,140
2064 *4,161
2065 *4,182
2066 *4,210
2067 *4,235
2068 *4,256
2069 *4,280
2070 *4,303
2071 *4,324
2072 *4,343
2073 *4,362
2074 *4,375
2075 *4,383
2076 *4,391
2077 *4,399
2078 *4,403
2079 *4,410
2080 *4,418
2081 *4,422
2082 *4,419
2083 *4,415
2084 *4,416
2085 *4,420
2086 *4,417
2087 *4,414
2088 *4,416
2089 *4,419
2090 *4,418
2091 *4,412
2092 *4,409
2093 *4,406
2094 *4,398
2095 *4,393
2096 *4,393
2097 *4,387
2098 *4,383
2099 *4,378
2100 *4,370

* UN projection

Population of Tokelau by year

2 thousand in 2000, 3 thousand in 2026. Every year for the last decade, then every five years to 1950. * UN projection; earlier years are UN estimates.

YearPopulationYearly changeWorld rank
2026* 2,691 +3.18% 235
2025* 2,608 +4.07% 235
2024* 2,506 +4.50% 235
2023 2,398 +4.72% 235
2022 2,290 +3.85% 235
2021 2,205 +3.62% 235
2020 2,128 +5.66% 235
2019 2,014 +7.24% 235
2018 1,878 +7.81% 235
2017 1,742 +3.88% 236
2016 1,677 −1.24% 236
2015 1,698 −1.74% 236
2010 1,584 +0.64% 236
2005 1,631 −4.34% 236
2000 1,844 +1.26% 236
1995 1,771 −0.06% 236
1990 1,766 +0.17% 236
1985 1,761 +1.97% 236
1980 1,664 −0.12% 236
1975 1,639 −0.18% 236
1970 1,720 −3.15% 236
1965 1,899 +0.32% 236
1960 1,784 +3.12% 236
1955 1,593 +0.44% 236
1950 1,592 – 235

Population forecast for Tokelau

UN medium-variant projection: 4 thousand in 2050 (+42.0% from 2026), 4 thousand in 2100.

YearPopulationYearly changeWorld rank
2030 2,985 +2.30% 235
2035 3,280 +1.61% 235
2040 3,512 +1.09% 234
2045 3,689 +0.93% 234
2050 3,821 +0.63% 233
2060 4,077 +0.62% 231
2070 4,303 +0.54% 231
2080 4,418 +0.18% 231
2090 4,418 −0.02% 231
2100 4,370 −0.18% 231

Age structure

Median age 27.6. 8.7% are 65 or older, 12.3% by 2050; 25.5% are under 15.

Tokelau, 2026 Men 2026 Women 2026 2050 (projection)
100+: men 0.0% 100+: women 0.0% 100+ 95-99: men 0.0% 95-99: women 0.0% 90-94: men 0.0% 90-94: women 0.0% 90-94 85-89: men 0.2% 85-89: women 0.5% 80-84: men 0.4% 80-84: women 0.5% 80-84 75-79: men 0.2% 75-79: women 1.1% 70-74: men 1.1% 70-74: women 0.6% 70-74 65-69: men 2.0% 65-69: women 2.0% 60-64: men 1.5% 60-64: women 3.0% 60-64 55-59: men 2.4% 55-59: women 2.4% 50-54: men 2.0% 50-54: women 1.5% 50-54 45-49: men 2.4% 45-49: women 2.7% 40-44: men 2.9% 40-44: women 2.9% 40-44 35-39: men 3.0% 35-39: women 3.4% 30-34: men 4.3% 30-34: women 4.1% 30-34 25-29: men 4.6% 25-29: women 4.6% 20-24: men 4.2% 20-24: women 4.3% 20-24 15-19: men 5.3% 15-19: women 4.1% 10-14: men 3.6% 10-14: women 4.1% 10-14 5-9: men 3.9% 5-9: women 4.2% 0-4: men 4.9% 0-4: women 4.8% 0-4

Share of the total population in each age group (%)

Births per woman

2.54 in 2026; about 2.1 keeps a population stable without migration.

Fertility rate, Tokelau
  • UN estimate
  • UN projection
1.8 2026
› Show the numbers as a table
YearFertility rate
19505.12
19515.22
19525.31
19535.38
19545.39
19555.50
19565.60
19575.62
19585.67
19595.71
19605.73
19615.72
19625.69
19635.66
19645.62
19655.55
19665.46
19675.37
19685.27
19695.16
19705.04
19714.93
19724.80
19734.66
19744.52
19754.41
19764.32
19774.22
19784.16
19794.10
19804.08
19814.06
19824.05
19834.09
19844.15
19854.19
19864.26
19874.32
19884.42
19894.51
19904.56
19914.60
19924.61
19934.58
19944.52
19954.47
19964.38
19974.27
19984.14
19994.00
20003.82
20013.67
20023.57
20033.51
20043.47
20053.44
20063.42
20073.40
20083.38
20093.34
20103.25
20113.16
20123.10
20133.04
20142.99
20152.92
20162.86
20172.81
20182.78
20192.75
20202.71
20212.68
20222.65
20232.61
2024 *2.60
2025 *2.57
2026 *2.54
2027 *2.52
2028 *2.49
2029 *2.47
2030 *2.44
2031 *2.42
2032 *2.40
2033 *2.38
2034 *2.36
2035 *2.34
2036 *2.32
2037 *2.31
2038 *2.29
2039 *2.27
2040 *2.26
2041 *2.25
2042 *2.23
2043 *2.22
2044 *2.21
2045 *2.19
2046 *2.18
2047 *2.17
2048 *2.16
2049 *2.15
2050 *2.14
2051 *2.13
2052 *2.11
2053 *2.10
2054 *2.09
2055 *2.08
2056 *2.07
2057 *2.06
2058 *2.05
2059 *2.05
2060 *2.04
2061 *2.03
2062 *2.02
2063 *2.02
2064 *2.01
2065 *2.00
2066 *2.00
2067 *1.99
2068 *1.98
2069 *1.97
2070 *1.96
2071 *1.96
2072 *1.95
2073 *1.94
2074 *1.94
2075 *1.93
2076 *1.92
2077 *1.92
2078 *1.91
2079 *1.90
2080 *1.90
2081 *1.89
2082 *1.89
2083 *1.88
2084 *1.88
2085 *1.88
2086 *1.87
2087 *1.87
2088 *1.86
2089 *1.86
2090 *1.85
2091 *1.85
2092 *1.84
2093 *1.84
2094 *1.84
2095 *1.83
2096 *1.83
2097 *1.83
2098 *1.82
2099 *1.82
2100 *1.82

* UN projection

Births and deaths each year

Deaths are projected to outnumber births from 2087.

Births and deaths, Tokelau
  • Births
  • Deaths
  • UN estimate
  • UN projection
44 2026
› Show the numbers as a table
YearBirthsDeaths
19505723
19515722
19525721
19535921
19546021
19556321
19566520
19576720
19587020
19597220
19607520
19617720
19627820
19637720
19647620
19657319
19667019
19676718
19686418
19696117
19705717
19715416
19725116
19735016
19744916
19754916
19764816
19774815
19784815
19794715
19804715
19814715
19824714
19834714
19844814
19855014
19865214
19875314
19885514
19895613
19905713
19915613
19925513
19935513
19945412
19955412
19965312
19975112
19985012
19994912
20004712
20014512
20024412
20034012
20043712
20053412
20063012
20072712
20082712
20092812
20102812
20112812
20122812
20133212
20143212
20153112
20163012
20172912
20183312
20193712
20204113
20214213
20224313
20234714
2024 *5114
2025 *5315
2026 *5515
2027 *5715
2028 *5816
2029 *5916
2030 *6017
2031 *6017
2032 *6018
2033 *6018
2034 *6018
2035 *5919
2036 *5919
2037 *5820
2038 *5720
2039 *5621
2040 *5621
2041 *5522
2042 *5522
2043 *5423
2044 *5423
2045 *5424
2046 *5425
2047 *5425
2048 *5426
2049 *5426
2050 *5427
2051 *5427
2052 *5427
2053 *5428
2054 *5428
2055 *5529
2056 *5529
2057 *5529
2058 *5629
2059 *5630
2060 *5630
2061 *5630
2062 *5631
2063 *5631
2064 *5531
2065 *5532
2066 *5432
2067 *5433
2068 *5433
2069 *5334
2070 *5235
2071 *5235
2072 *5236
2073 *5137
2074 *5138
2075 *5039
2076 *4939
2077 *4940
2078 *4941
2079 *4842
2080 *4843
2081 *4844
2082 *4844
2083 *4745
2084 *4746
2085 *4746
2086 *4747
2087 *4748
2088 *4748
2089 *4749
2090 *4749
2091 *4749
2092 *4749
2093 *4649
2094 *4649
2095 *4649
2096 *4649
2097 *4649
2098 *4549
2099 *4549
2100 *4448

* UN projection

Compare with Oceania

CountryPopulation 2026Growth
Tokelau 3 thousand +2.60%
Australia 27.2 million +0.91%
Papua New Guinea 10.9 million +1.68%
New Zealand 5.3 million +0.65%
Timor Leste 1.4 million +1.31%
Fiji 937 thousand +0.43%
Solomon Islands 858 thousand +2.30%
Vanuatu 343 thousand +2.16%
New Caledonia 298 thousand +0.83%

All 237 countries · Fertility rate by country · Birth rate by country · Median age by country · Life expectancy by country · Population growth rate by country · Population density by country · Largest countries by area · Death rate by country · Infant mortality rate by country · Elderly population by country · Net migration rate by country · Urban population by country · Sex ratio by country

Questions

What is the population of Tokelau in 2026?

2,691 on 1 July 2026, according to the UN's World Population Prospects 2024 (medium-variant projection). That is 3 thousand people, +3.18% on 2025.

Is Tokelau's population growing or shrinking?

Growing: 83 more people in 2026 than in 2025, with 0 births and 0 deaths a day and net migration of +43 a year.

When will Tokelau's population peak?

In 2081, at about 4 thousand, on the UN's medium projection; 4 thousand by 2100.

What is the fertility rate in Tokelau?

2.54 births per woman in 2026. A population replaces itself at about 2.1.

How many babies are born in Tokelau every day?

About 0 a day (55 in 2026), against about 0 deaths a day.

What is the life expectancy in Tokelau?

77.4 years at birth in 2026: 79.3 for women and 75.3 for men, against a world average of 73.8.

How many men and women live in Tokelau?

About 1 thousand men and 1 thousand women in 2026, or 96.1 men for every 100 women.

What is the population density of Tokelau?

224 people per km² of land in 2026, on a total area of 10 km². The world average is 64.

What was the population of Tokelau in 2000?

1,844 (2 thousand), the UN estimate for 1 July 2000. It has grown by 46% since, to 3 thousand in 2026.

What will the population of Tokelau be in 2050?

About 4 thousand on the UN's medium projection (3,821), +42.0% from 2026; 4 thousand by 2100.

Source and method

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant. Figures for 1950–2023 are UN estimates; later years are the medium-variant projection, which assumes fertility, mortality and migration follow their most likely paths. National statistics offices publish their own counts, which can differ. Reuse under CC BY 3.0 IGO. How we use the data.